Written by: Alex Leonard, PMP

Presentation Overview 

On February 21, 2023, the Agile Forum of the PMI Atlanta Chapter hosted the “Forecasting with Monte Carlo Simulation” Special Interest Forum Event as presented by Andrew Fuqua. With over 35 years of professional experience in product development, product management, and project/portfolio management, Andrew provided new levels of insight into project planning and forecasting. Triangulation is the practice of utilizing 3-4 forecasting methods, for example Points/Velocity, SWAG Approach, or the Monte Carlo Simulation, to make accurate forecasts and estimates.

The Monte Carlo Simulation is considered one of the most accurate ways to forecast project or sprint completion. This is because it simulates outcomes based on the analysis of a wide range of available historical data from similar projects previously performed, whether internal or external to an organization. Some of the data analyzed through the simulation includes previous project completion timelines, project complexity, and probability of stories splitting into multiple stories (e.g., one story becomes two or more).

Once the Monte Carlo Simulation has been completed, those responsible for forecasting project completion timelines are able to complete their projection through various levels of confidence. For example, a mid-July timeline projection may have an 80% confidence level, while an early-July projection may be acceptable at a 70% confidence level. Andrew does, however, suggest that a confidence level of 80% is the most common benchmark because it gives project planners the flexibility to adjust forecasting based on the risk appetite within their respective organizations.

Andrew also presented and demonstrated a useful spreadsheet tool that aids in performing Monte Carlo Simulations. See link to the free resource below for more information:
https://www.focusedobjective.com/pages/free-spreadsheets-and-tools

Takeaways

• To make effective estimates & forecasts, it is paramount to use multiple forecasting tools through the Triangulation method. This will include the use of 3-4 different forecasting tools.
• When making estimates, avoid giving a single date. Actual results tend to be on the pessimistic side.
• Utilizing Monte Carlo Simulation allows you to make estimates for project/sprint completion based on assumptions around complexity, historical data, and ranges of story splits.

Next Event

Join us at the next PMI Agile Forum on March 21, 2023

Keynote Presentation: TBA, Varun Anand

Register at www.pmiatlanta.org/events/event-calendar 

Event Pictures

Written by: Rishea Middlebrooks MHI, CAPM

Complex data collection systems and interoperability challenges and varying levels of data standardization, oh my! Take a look at the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) data modernization efforts of the National Vital Statistics System to produce timely and accurate data on mortality and it’s causes in the United States.

Presentation Overview   

This month’s speakers will describe the foundational building blocks that have facilitated the on going success of the NVSS Modernization Initiative across the 57 state vital records offices, NCHS, and its national partners. Ongoing community engagement through the NVSS Community of Practice (CoP) and the availability of robust funding through the 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) have been important drivers in the vital records data modernization space. The presentation will highlight strategies and project management approaches that have contributed to this success while sharing upcoming plans to strengthen the vital records ecosystem with EHRs, surveillance systems, and medical examiner/coroner case management systems.

Takeaways  

Challenges faced:

•  Lack of real-time data
• Varying levels of technical capabilities across 57 vital records offices
  
  • Batch/Flat file upload v. sending data via an HIE or single file upload
• Extremely complex National Vital Statistics System mortality data flow

Solutions:

• CARES Act funding relief
• Data modernization using HL7 Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR)
  • Benefits
    • Data quality
    • Standardization and integration
    • Process efficiency
    • Modernizing data flows
    • Large developer community and support
• RESTful Application Programming Interface (API)

Goals of the NVSS:

• Improved interoperability
• Data modernization
  • Standards development, policy, regulation
  • Technical tools and assistance
  • Testing and systems strengthening
  • Community engagement and connection
  • NCHS certification

Lessons Learned:

• Not all workflows are created equal
• Organizational level change management is crucial for the success of the project
• Modernization IT systems and identifying bottlenecks within internal IT systems
• Connecting people and existing projects within the organization leads to a more formalized program framework

Next Event

Join us at the next PMI Atlanta Healthcare forum on Wednesday, March 15th, 2023

Keynote Presentation: Lauren Gohde, the Global Lead, Inclusion & Diversity for Philips Healthcare will present: “The Power of Diverse Team in Project Management”

Register at www.pmiatlanta.org/events/event-calendar 

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Written by: Catherine Binuya, Ed.D.

Presentation Overview 

Cheryl Bennett is PMO Director of New Wave Technologies (https://newwave.io/) and Owner of Just Swim Consulting (https://www.justswimconsulting.com/) a leadership training and
personal development company. Cheryl led the AEC Forum in a discussion of the application of Situational Leadership, a theory developed by Ken Blanchard and Paul Hersey. Situational Leadership Theory articulates how leaders can vary their leadership approach to directiveness and support according to a team member’s level of work competency and confidence in completing a task.

Takeaways

• Four (4) Development Levels of a Team Member
  • D1- Excited Beginner: characterized by low competency, high confidence
    • Traits: Inexperienced, curious, optimistic, eager
    • Needs: Give them clear goals, rules & directions, step-by-step guidance, frequent feedback, positive reinforcement, concrete examples
  • D2- Frustrated Learner: characterized by higher competency, lower confidence
    • Traits Some competence, confusion, discouraged, overwhelmed, demotivated
    • Needs: Encouragement, support and reassurance, advice, coaching, give perspective and help analyze mistakes
  • D3- Capable/Cautious: characterized by moderate competency, moderate confidence
    • Traits: Contributors, self-critical, cautious, insecure
    • Needs: Sounding board, validation, encourage them to problem solve solutions, confidence building, remind them of past successes
  • D4- Expert/Achiever: characterized by high competency, high confidence
    • Traits: SMEs, inspired and inspiring, autonomous, self-directed/self-reliant/self-assured
    • Needs: Acknowledgement, appreciation, trust, challenge growth, autonomy, opportunities to teach and mentor other members

• Four (4) corresponding Leadership Styles associated with each Development Level of working team member
  • S1- Directive: characterized by high direction, low support “Tell them what to do”
  • S2- Coaching: characterized by high direction, high support “Coach them on what to do”
  • S3- Supportive: characterized by low direction, high support “Encourage them on what to do”
  • S4- Delegator: characterized by low direction, low support “Challenge them on what to do”

Next Event

Join us at the next PMI Atlanta Architectural, Engineering, & Construction (AEC) Forum on December 13, 2022

Keynote Presenter: Yvonne Dragon, Co-Founder, COO, Chief Strategist of the Dragon Group

Register at www.pmiatlanta.org/events/event-calendar 

Event Pictures

Written by: Catherine Binuya, Ed.D.

Presentation Overview 

Steve Hopper, founder and principal of Inviscid Consulting, is a subject matter expert and specialist in supply chain operations, warehousing, logistics, and distribution. He answered the questions: what are risks? what can go wrong? and how do we deal with it? He then shared several analytical models to quantify, rank and subsequently mitigate risk.

Takeaways

• FMEA—Failure Mode & Effects Analysis is an objective, systematic, iterative approach to manage and prioritize potential failure modes to mitigate impact. Initially developed by the US military in 1949, with applications in aerospace by NASA and later the automotive industry
  • Note: FMECA—Failure Mode & Effects Criticality Analysis applies probability and statistics to assess FMEA mitigation
• FMEA approach can either be
  • Top-Down—if focus is on operation and/or design
  • Bottom-Up—if focus is on product design
• Anatomy of Operational Risk—Two measures of failure
  • Likelihood: measures realistic possibility of failure (3 levers)
    1. Occurrence
    2. Resulting Harm
    3. Non-detection
  • Impact: measures realistic consequences if failure occurs (3 targets)
    1. Functional Operation
    2. Time (downtime)
    3. Customers’ ability to process services or goods
• Identifying Risk Controls (2 types)
  • Preventative Controls—attempt to filter causal factors to lower or eliminate likelihood of failure
  • Preparedness Controls—attempt to filter failure to lower or eliminate impact
• RPN—Risk Profile Number: assign each identified risk an objective, composite score calculation based on measure of likelihood and impact.

Next Event

Join us at the next PMI Atlanta Architectural, Engineering, & Construction (AEC) Forum on November 8, 2022

Register at www.pmiatlanta.org/events/event-calendar  

Event Pictures   

Written by: Catherine Binuya, Ed.D.

Presentation Overview 

Joshua Crews, AIA, EDAC, serves as Studio Director at Nelson Worldwide. As an expert in project management in architecture, he leverages his expertise in research and Evidence-Based Design (EBD) to collaborate with leading research institutions to develop wellness designs used in the healthcare industry. He presented on the application of functional scenarios and how the design principles of Flexibility and Efficiency influence the outcome of Evidence-Based Design models.

Takeaways

• Evidence-Based Design (EBD) considers the principles of design flexibility and design efficiency to evaluate scales of flexibility
• Eight (8) Steps of EBD: Define, Resource, Interpret, Create, Measure, Monitor, Collect, and Hypothesize
• EBD Flexibility employs Functional Scenarios that seek to provide design solutions for the space between the Start State and the End State by answering the “What if…”
  • The processes bridge the gaps from “what is known” versus “what we think we know” versus “what we don’t know”
    • E.g., The Paimio Sanatorium, designed by Alvar Aalto in 1932, was originally a facility to treat tuberculosis (TB) which was then a public health pandemic. The overall design incorporated what was thought to cure TB, i.e., access to fresh air and sunlight, as evidenced in the construction of the building, outdoor seating area chairs, and ventilation systems. Due to the Paimio Sanatorium’s EBD design flexibility, this was one of the few TB sanatoriums that survived demolition after vaccinations were widely available in the 1950s. The former sanatorium stands today, with a recent remodel in 2014 to convert the building into a pediatric hospital to serve the community. https://www.architectural-review.com/buildings/revisit-aaltos-paimio-sanatorium-continues-to-radiate-a-profound-sense-of-human-empathy
• Three (3) types of Flexibility:
  • Adaptability- no construction, multiple use of a single space
  • Transformability– moveable, able to relocate, responsive/surge capacity
  • Convertibility– construction involved, time considerations
• Five (5) Drivers of Change: Demographics, Patient Mix, Volume, Disaster, Technology *The Unknowns are always a factor in the change process

Next Event

Join us at the next PMI Atlanta Architectural, Engineering, & Construction (AEC) Forum on October 11, 2022

Keynote Presentation: "How to Prevent Risky Business in Supply Chain Facilities" by Stephen (Steve) T. Hopper, PE, Founder & Principal at Inviscid Consulting

Register at www.pmiatlanta.org/events/event-calendar 

Event Pictures